Biden Avoids Real Issues In Midterm Election Campaign - Will You?

"Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic . . .  But there is no question that the Republican Party today is dominated, driven, and intimidated by Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans, and that is a threat to this country . . . They promote authoritarian leaders, and they fan the flames of political violence that are a threat to our personal rights, to the pursuit of justice, to the rule of law, to the very soul of this country . . . But while the threat to American democracy is real, I want to say as clearly as we can: We are not powerless in the face of these threats.  We are not bystanders in this ongoing attack on democracy . . . But as I stand here tonight, equality and democracy are under assault." - With the theme that Trump & his MAGA followers are a threat to the nation, Biden opened the 2022 midterm election campaign in a speech, broadcast in prime time, outside Independence Hall in Philadelphia, on September 1, with two Marines standing guard in dress uniforms in a formal position taken by Marines for officially sanctioned events or when guarding embassies.

A lot of the thunder from the mean-spirited, bizarre, poorly delivered speech was lost or forgotten the next day when Biden said "I don't consider any Trump supporter to be a threat to the country" as if someone told him Democrats might need some of the votes of the 46.9% of the national electorate who supported Trump in 2020.

The speech got off to a bad start with me literally in the first five seconds when Biden coughed into his hand while asking the audience to be seated. The red light backdrop resembled hell with the aforementioned Marines standing guard.  See below.  

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Although Biden provided plenty of criticism of Trump & his followers he offered only generalities for Democrat programs & never mentioned the pressing issues of the day.  See FNC graphic below.

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Biden also did not mention specifics of his just passed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) like spending $80 billion to hire new IRS agents whose main function will be to audit taxpayers or the new corporate Alternative Minimum Tax, where corporations pay 21% of taxable income or 15% of the income reported on financial documents, whichever is more.

Over the months Biden has blamed inflation on "Putin's War," but a quick check of the graph below shows that inflation started right after Biden cancelled the Keystone XL pipeline the first day he took office & "Putin's War" did not start until over a year later on February 24, 2022.

Biden also has come in the past two months to point out inflation is no more because the month over month inflation has been "zero" or "an inch" respectively.

He is wrong about that.  Actually the index (CPI) reached its top in June @ 296.311.  It was 296.276 in July & 296.171 in August meaning that someone (a typical urban consumer in the CPI parlance) whose personal consumption mirrored exactly the categories & weighings used to construct the CPI actually saw prices go down the past two months.  But they would still be paying $1.29 more per gallon of gasoline than when Biden took office ($3.77 vs. $2.48 or 52.0% more) & 49 cents more than a year ago ($3.77 vs. $3.28 or 14.9% more).

This is why it is important for everyone to know their own individual inflation rate.  I'd like to meet the "average" or "typical" urban consumer who would say that the prices they paid went down the past two months - other than for still sky high gasoline.

But these are details that some aide told Biden about.  The American economy is not based on monthly data like Biden presented but rather is based on year over year changes - people get annual reviews & raises; companies issue annual reports; Social Security cost of living adjustments are given once a year - a special form of the wage price spiral theory; & your income tax return is due every April 15.  Your salary does not increase every month.  In fact, in times of high inflation it noticeably diminishes in purchasing power over the year until you get an annual raise, an arrangement that always keeps your purchasing power behind the inflation curve.  So whether it was 9.1% (CPI increase in June from a year before) or 8.5% in July or now 8.3% in August people are feeling the increases in prices.

See graphic below that shows year over year real average hourly inflation adjusted earnings have declined every month since Biden took office, meaning that wages have not kept up with inflation.  Prices may have stayed nearly the same in July from the month before but real earnings declined 3% from July, 2021.  At 8.3% inflation, the arithmetic works out that people work 12 months to have 11 months' worth of buying power.

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And then we have Kamala Harris saying "We have a secure border, which is a priority for any nation includings ours & our administration."  Phew, what a whopper.

Including the recently released August figures the total apprehensions for fiscal year 2022 to date @ the southwest border are 2,150,639 - the first time the figure has been over 2 million for any fiscal year & there is still one month to go to tabulate all the apprehensions in FY2022.

See graphic below for apprehension figures through July.

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The graphic below shows the total enforcement actions for the nation through August, 2022.  The 2,493,721 figure is larger than the population of 15 states, all but our three largest cities, the total U.S. military, & the active duty militaries of both the Chinese & Russians.

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The above examples of Biden on inflation & Harris on border security are gross & blatant lies that even the least discerning among us should be able to recognize.  

But the Democrats' arrogance has gotten so bold that it has turned to insult.  For instance, after being soft on crime & leading calls to defund the police ever since George Floyd slipped a counterfeit twenty dollar bill to buy a pack of cigarettes - with no shame, Josh Gottheimer (D., NJ)  proposed a bill to fund the police that passed the House 360 - 64.  The purpose of the bill was to provide cover for Democrats who are thought to be vulnerable because of the soft on crime issue.  And in a stunning turn of real vulnerability Ilhan Omar voted for this legislation while her other Squad members (AOC, Tlaib, Pressley, Bush) voted against it.  Omar won her primary in August by 2.1 points (50.3% - 48.2% & a margin of 2,466 votes).  Will Omar just have a scare in a primary or can she be removed from office in the midterms?  It is insulting for Democrats to think that voting for this bill will mean they are for the police & not just trying to buy votes.

Conservatives think that none of the above is appetizing to conventional voters & Republicans like to say Democrats have no issues to run on. 

Republicans were encouraged when Mayra Flores won the special election on June 14 for the vacant seat in Texas congressional district 34 - right on the border.  With only a 7% turnout Flores won by 2,220 votes 51.0% - 43.3%.  Accordingly, the election results of this district in November are the most important in the country.  If Flores & the other two Latinas running in Texas border districts win it will be a watershed event.  If they lose it is another terrible sign for the GOP & America. 

Shortly after the Flores victory in Texas Republican prospects started to change.  The so-called generic ballot suddenly shifted in August to showing Democrats holding on to Congress in the midterms.  See graphic below. 

Republicans claim that such polls should not be believed & that it is inevitable that a red wave (actually the term they use is red tsunami) is coming in November.  I personally question every poll I look @ but also believe that pollsters are in business to continue making polls for profit so I analyse them from that standpoint rather than just dismiss them when I don't like the result.

In this case we have other evidence that the Democrat vote is picking up steam.

First a statewide vote in traditionally conservative Kansas on August 2 overwhelmingly rejected a Kansas constitutional amendment on abortion.  Kansans voted to keep abortion a constitutional right by a 60 to 40 landslide margin.

Republicans have convinced themselves that the abortion issue will fade as a high priority for Democrats by November.  This seems dangerous.

Below is the actual ballot explanatory statement for the proposed constitutional amendment that was rejected.

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And then there is the 19th congressional district special House election in NY held on August 23 where Democrat Pat Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro 52%-48%.  Trump had won this district by 7 points in 2016 & Biden had won it by 2 points in 2020 so it certainly was up for grabs & really was winnable for Republicans if the red wave was coming.  The previous holder vacated the seat to become Lieutenant Governor.

Ryan had trailed by double digits in several polls before he started to campaign on abortion rights.

Republicans snuffed this out with the same abortion reasoning as above in Kansas & literally laughed it off saying it was no way indicative of what is coming because it was NY, after all.

Lastly, on August 31, the Alaska special election to fill the late Don Young's seat was won by Democrat Mary Peltola over Sarah Palin by 5,240 votes 51.48% - 48.52%.  This time Republicans blamed Alaska's new ranked choice voting system.  The top three candidates will compete again in November once again using the ranked choice voting system.

The June 2 post pointed out that Democrats will squeeze the lemon dry on four issues that draw support even in an inflationary environment: 1) Stricter gun control laws, 2) abortion, 3) Trump, & 4)  student loan forgiveness.

Democrats know that Trump brings out more Democrat voters against him than Republican voters to support him so they want to keep him in the news every day.  Of course Trump is only too happy to oblige with his massive ego that has done him in more than once the past two years.  The Mar-a-Lago feud with the DOJ, restarting the January 6 hearings, & the NY & Fulton County, Georgia legal matters will all ensure that the suburban women, who voted against Trump in 2020, are constantly reminded why they disliked him so much.

The student loan forgiveness issue is one of winners & losers (i.e., chumps who paid off their loans).  Biden must have figured that forgiving up to $10,000 ($20,000 if you received a Pell grant) in student loans is a net winner that will obligate voters to turnout for the midterms to vote for Democrats.  He is working from a pool of 43 million people who owe an estimated $1.6 trillion.  To qualify, individuals must have an adjusted gross income less than $125,000 in either tax year 2020 or 2021, $250,000 if married.

Biden is making this as broad & easy as he can to take the debts of those who incurred it & transfer it to those who don't owe it.

Nearly eight million people may not even have to apply because the Department of Education already has their income data - these people may simply see their loan balance reduced without doing a thing.  The rest can apply in early October online & should expect their loan reduction in four to six weeks.

Payments for those who still have a loan balance will resume in January.  This is not the bad news for borrowers that it @ first appears to be because of a new income-driven repayment plan that could forgive some loans much faster & all loans with much less payments than the current plans.

The proposed income-driven repayment plan caps monthly payments @ 5% of discretionary income defined as the difference between annual income & 225% of the federal poverty level ($13,590 for 2022) up from the current 150% of the FPL.  No one making less than this discretionary income amount - $30,578 for 2022 or about $15 an hour for a full time worker - owes anything.  If you make your monthly payment interest will not accrue (it will be covered by the Department of Education funded by taxpayers) so your loan balance will not increase.

An actual test case I am aware of has the borrower owing $67,000 in student debt while earning $50,000 per year.  This means the person will be required to make twelve $81 monthly payments each year based on 5% of $19,422 ($50,000 - $30,578).  One proposed plan I saw cancelled such debt after 20 years if the monthly payments are made on time.

Working the numbers in constant 2022 dollars, for simplicity, means the borrower pays a little less than $1,000 per year for 20 years toward the $67,000 student loan @ which time the loan is cancelled by the federal government who releases the borrower & the entire debt is forgiven.

In this arrangement the borrower has paid $20,000 over the twenty years & has seen the remaining $47,000 loan balance cancelled & has also seen over $77,000 of interest, @ 4.99% per year, not accrue .  This borrower would have to earn $97,578 per year to pay off the entire $67,000 student loan in twenty years - & again if no interest is accrued.

Now you can do any examples you are aware of but the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) determined that $420B will be cancelled from the initial $10,000 forgiveness part of the program ($20,000 if you received a Pell grant) & another $150B from the income-driven repayment plan.

A great percentage of the student loan debt will be wiped out with the above plan so Biden has accomplished another goal of Progressives like AOC, Sanders, Warren, & Schumer - namely to have @ least $50,000 of student loans, including interest, forgiven like the above example does through the backdoor.

Of course this is an open invitation for colleges to raise tuition meaning the federal government can repeatedly do this all over again with other groups of students in years to come.

It is no wonder that lawsuits have already been brought with more to follow.

This post shows that the Biden/Harris administration has not been working on solving the nation's problems - inflation, gasoline prices, crime, border security, & fentanyl smuggling.  In fact their policies have deliberately made these problems worse & really are a continuation of BO's destructive purposeful design to fundamentally transform America into just another mediocre country where the citizens are dependent on the government.  

Biden/Harris present bald-faced lies like "Inflation only went up an inch," "the border is secure," & we have "always been for funding the police."  All of this is to secure votes to keep both chambers of Congress under Democrat control so the government dependent onslaught can continue for the rest of Biden's term.

We must decide if we want to put a check on Biden/Harris as our glorious Constitution provides for elections every two years so that changes can be made if necessary - like they are now.

We never hear Biden/Harris talk about liberty, deregulating incentives to unleash the free enterprise system, or productivity & economic growth that is the basis of an improved standard of living.  Instead Democrats demoralize border patrol agents & police officers while supporting Black Lives Matter & Critical Race Theory being taught in schools along with the 1619 Project.  Democrats discourage enlisting in the military by injecting "wokeness" into the troops' training by emphasising diversity & pronouns instead of fighting readiness so that the Army met only 52% of its recruitment goal for fiscal year 2022 which ended Friday.

Biden/Harris's goal is not to build people up but rather to tear people down by trying to convince young people, people of color, & unmarried women that their future is one of victimhood & that their lives can only improve by voting Democrat so they can partake @ the buffet of the 126 welfare programs identified by the Cato Institute.

There are 11.2 million job openings & 6.0 million unemployed people yet small business owners say finding qualified people is their biggest problem.  There are three million fewer workers today than in February, 2020 - mostly men in their prime working years of 25 - 54.  And almost half of U.S. households currently shortsightedly support an adult child according to WSJ columnist Andy Kessler.  This time off can only result in a lower standard of living for future generations who inherit a less robust economy.  Yet Biden/Harris continue the government handouts that principally cause the degrading humiliating loss of self respect & self worth that these people will surely feel when the gravy train stops.

But there is even more wrong than just this economic picture - something is different this time.  It's like we have moved to another level of self destruction.  Instead of people rushing to help people being mugged or just plain beaten for no reason, people rush to take photos or videos to see if they can get a policeman in trouble. Criminals are emboldened knowing they will be out of jail in hours if not minutes because the Soros DAs will not bring charges.  The ten most dangerous cities in America are run by Democrat mayors.  Think of the safety in NYC under Rudy & Bloomy & compare that to the rampant crime under deBlasio & now Eric Adams.

This will not end well for any of us including Biden/Harris supporters.  It ends with a group of elite Progressives @ the top where the income inequality between the handful of Elites & the people is gargantuan.

What I have described is a dictatorship where the despots use law enforcement (FBI) against their political opponents.  These despots really don't care about the people no matter how much they say & pretend they do along their way to power.  In fact they are already using law enforcement as described & have repeatedly shown they don't care about the people.

Our problems - wages & retirement incomes can't keep up with price increases, school children are taught their parents are racists & America is a rotten country, drug stores are looted in broad daylight because the criminals know they will not be prosecuted for shoplifting merchandise below $950 in value - are preposterous & intentionally manufactured.  

And if the people can't see this after the past two years God help us.