A Pre-2022-Midterm-Election Analysis

 "We will get a gage on how this will play out in the 2022 midterms in the very near future.  First, California Governor Gavin Newsome is involved in a recall election on September 14, a two step process on the ballot - if more than 50% of the ballots support Newsome he is safe & the recall process is over (Newsome is polling about 50% support after posting a terrible record by freedom loving Americans the past 18 months.)  If Newsome does not receive 50% support in the first question he will be replaced by whichever candidate receives @ least a plurality from the 46 list of people on the ballot.

"There are also governors' races in New Jersey & Virginia in November but between these three events we may get a good idea of where the country is heading.  All three contests are in blue states but the margins could be telling if close even in defeat." - From the August 10 RTE post.

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Well the Newsome recall election wasn't close.  If anything, Newsome increased his political standing in that his margin of victory in the recall was greater than when he won the governorship in 2018 with a 62% to 38% victory over John Cox.

Mr. Cox, like Larry Elder in the just completed recall race, was exactly what California needed to turn the once Golden state around.  As many readers know I have followed Mr. Cox since he campaigned in South Carolina for the FairTax over a dozen years ago.  He is a fine man & deserves more than a 38% share of any electorate in the United States.  Something is wrong in America, or changing, when a candidate like Cox cannot command more than 38% of the vote - even in California.

As for Larry Elder, my respect for him only increased during this recall process - he dared greatly for America & the people of California let us all down.

This time 64% of the electorate supported Newsome (to not be recalled) & Larry Elder received 47% of the votes to recall Newsome meaning that Elder received 17% of the total vote.  Since there were 46 candidates to replace Newsome, Larry Elder would certainly do better than 17% in a head to head match with Newsome but with a number under 40% clearly in sight, Elder said "it is hard to see how the outcome would be any different" in a one on one rematch in 2022.  

Also since the last successful recall in 2003 California has turned even more blue.  There are now 5% more registered Democrats than in 2003, 50% more registered Independents who predominantly vote Democrat, & 33% fewer Republicans.

Also very discouraging is that the 2021 recall election produced about 5.3 million votes supporting recall, a number less than the 6.0 million votes Trump received in California in 2020.  What happened to those 700,000 unaccounted for people?  Don't they know that Elder, as governor, would have had a more immediate direct impact on their wellbeing than Trump would have had as president?

Based on exit polls 68% of white college graduates supported Newsome - a greater percentage than Asians (62%) & Latinos (58%).  Only Blacks, @ 81% support, were higher in their support for Newsome than white college graduates.  White voters without a college degree favored the recall 57% to 43%.

Newsome's fate was @ best 50-50 last summer when the recall effort obtained the number of signatures required for a recall election to go forward.  But this quickly turned in Newsome's favor when he masterfully turned the issues away from his poor performance as governor & manipulated the electorate to believe that Larry Elder was a figurehead, or nominal leader, of the California Republican party taking orders directly from Trump.

And it worked so well in California that Democrats plan to try it again in Virginia with an offshoot of the tactic in New Jersey.  

Trump has already endorsed Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin against Terry McAuliffe, a former Democrat governor, who as such, has already won a statewide election.  It doesn't look good in Virginia this November.

In New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli has the opposite problem - he has been branded a RINO & can reliably expect only non-supporters of Trump to vote for him. 

And of course linking Republican candidates one way or the other to Trump will become the universal game plan for Democrats in all the 2022 midterm congressional races.  And to our detriment Trump will play along by drawing negative attention by fighting back against any perceived slight, however insignificant, he may think was made. 

Republicans are counting on the historical fact that the President's party loses congressional seats in midterm elections.  Since 1900 only three presidents have seen their party gain House seats in their first midterm election - TR in 1902, FDR in 1934, & GW Bush in 2002.  And of course James Monroe, our best president, not only gained House seats for his party in both of his presidential terms but also did not lose a Senate seat during his entire administration which is something that no other president ever achieved.

Now the flip side of this historical coin that favors Republicans (think about it - this favoritism is only the result of them losing the last presidential election thereby giving Biden a chance to govern) is the negative aspect that Republicans are defending 20 Class III Senate seats in 2022, & Democrats are defending 14.

But worse yet, Trump is purposely further dividing the Republican party by calling on his Senate allies to depose Mitch McConnell of his Senate leadership position.  Readers know I am no fan of Mitch's overall record - his last Liberty Score was 28%, just above the highest Democrat - but if Trump could have put his massive ego aside & really campaigned for Perdue & Loeffler in the two Georgia senate elections on January 5 as if he knew the entire Biden agenda hung in the balance, which it obviously did, I can't think of a better person to gum up Biden's program than having Mitch in opposition as Senate majority leader.

Without the loss of both Georgia senate seats we would have none of the problems we have today from Biden.  Not always affectionately called "old turkey neck" - Mitch has proven he would have bottled up all of this Marxist propaganda Biden is trying to peddle @ Sanders/AOC's direction.

If Trump was anywhere near as influential as he imagines Republicans would not have lost both the House & Senate over his one term in office.  Now Trump is further dividing the Republican electorate only because he wants to pay back those who slighted him like Congressman Chip Roy of Texas, with a Liberty Score of 100%, who voted against overturning the presidential election in January.

So to sum up: there are three factors currently in play regarding the 2022 midterm elections - historical trends that favor Republicans, more Republican incumbent Senate seats up for reelection that favors Democrats, & Trump's inherent divisiveness that has favored Democrats ever since 2016.

We need a fourth factor to increase the odds of this mixed bag & to counter Biden's socialist appeal of his gigantic spending plans that much of the general populace will find hard to resist: namely, a Newt Gingrich type Contract with America that will address the 14 questions I raised before the first 2020 presidential debate one year ago this week, such as: 1) What is the significance of the national debt? 2) What is the maximum amount of a person's income anyone should ever have to pay to the federal government in income taxes? & 3) Shouldn't we be taking steps now to head off the upcoming 21% reduction in Social Security benefits & if so what are these steps?  If not, why not?

If Republicans can supply answers so that people understand the importance of these three questions, & the other eleven I posted with them, we are well on our way to returning our country to the excellence of her founding.  If you cavalierly dismiss the questions with the attitude that no one can implement answers to them then we are indeed in for more trouble because the answers are the only way back to our prosperity & way of life so many in this readership see slipping away.

To continue to proceed in America without real questions being answered is like a structural engineer designing & building a bridge on quicksand instead of bedrock.  The project is heading for trouble.

If you can even just begin to see the destructive nature of what Biden & the Democrats are trying to do in transforming America please do all you can to stop it.

But so far we can't find anyone who will even mention these points so the 2022 midterms are a potluck process that could very well get us in deeper with an even more empowered Biden/Harris administration.