Why Lovers Of America Should Vote For Trump

The polls are tightening is the desired report from a media that is clamoring for ratings during the next five weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign.  These tightening polls are of the popular vote, for the most part, & are a much more interesting headline than just reporting the status of the Florida race – if Trump loses Florida it is game over, followed in importance closely by Pennsylvania & Iowa. 

 

If those above three states turn in Trump's favor we have a race, if not an outright Trump win. 

 

The trifecta is harder than you may think with Pennsylvania being the hard nut to crack.  PA is not really a swing state having gone for the Democrat the last six presidential elections.  There are about 1 million more registered Democrats in PA than registered Republicans so quite often the Republican pulls close only to fall back @ the end.

 

But the media focuses on the popular vote polls because it is much easier for people to grasp – although misleading because it is only the result of the electoral college that counts.  Just tell Andrew Jackson (1824), Samuel Tilden (1876), Grover Cleveland (1888), or Al Gore (2000) that the popular vote polls showed them winning the presidency – Gore won the popular vote by 543,816 votes & as we all know lost the election.

 

The great Duquesne economics professor Antony Davies & James R. Harrigan have issued a report entitled Government Debt and Spending in 4 Graphs that shows clearly what Trump (or really any Republican) is facing.  Please review the following table from the report that shows that @ least the bottom 60% of income earners, on average, receive more in the form of tax credits and transfers from the federal government than they pay in taxes to the federal government.

 

  click on table to enlarge

 

As indicated in the above table even those in the fourth quintile pay only a modest 8% net or effective tax rate, on average, meaning that taken all together 80% of the income earners in the country are not personally interested in tax reform because they don't pay any or much tax @ all but are interested in maintaining the government programs that they benefit from.  I have pointed out for years that this is the prime reason the FairTax cannot catch on & for that matter neither can any of the various versions of the flat income tax.

 

Yes, those in the middle class receive $3,600, on average, more in benefits than they pay in federal taxes each year.  In fact people in the top two quintiles currently pay $1.5 trillion in taxes that go to those in the bottom three quintiles.  This means that a majority of Americans – almost a supermajority – have a personal interest in expanded government.  The more government spends, the more they stand to receive.

 

Scott Hodge, President of the Tax Foundation, answered Hillary Clinton's implied question – "What is the fair share of taxes that the wealthy should be paying" – when he calculated that in order to bring every family in America to average would require the people in the top two quintiles to pay higher taxes than they currently do with people in the top quintile paying the vast majority of an additional $2.4 trillion per year in federal taxes or 74% of their income. 

 

I refer to this phenomenon as the Death Of Democracy principle that has been the undoing of all the world's great civilizations once the majority of voters realize they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury.  From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.

 

One of Trump's appeals to me is that he offers a chance to @ least slow down this destructive slide into government dependence – a slide that Hillary Clinton only accelerates.

 

***

 

Polls showing the division of the popular vote of Hispanics has been a good indicator of the general election winner the past several cycles (see graphs below) – possibly because there is such a large margin between the candidates since 2008.  In 2012 the biggest expert I know of regarding the importance of immigration & demographics blurted out several weeks before that election that "Romney could not win" when the polls showed Mitt only receiving 27% of the Hispanic vote.  Trump is currently polling @ 17% among Hispanics meaning he will need a much larger percentage than the already large percentage of whites that Romney received in 2012 in order to break even on this losing position.

 

It is estimated that a Republican will need @ least 40% of the Hispanic vote in order to have a chance because lower percentages are a major problem for candidates in states with a large Hispanic population.

 

click on graphs to enlarge

 

In this same regard only 26% of Asian-Americans voted for Romney in 2012.  Only 21% of Asian-Americans support Trump according to Morning Consult.

 

***

 

Early voting is a more subtle influence on the determination of the presidency than the two influences described above – if only because both Hillary & Trump talk about November 8 being Election Day.  The percentage of early votes cast nationally has more than doubled since 2000 – see table below.  A few days before the 2012 Presidential Election Day Romney was campaigning in Florida, after early voting had started, talking about Election Day being November 6, 2012 – in fact over half the ballots cast in Florida that year were before November 6.

 

  click on table to enlarge

 

In the last two presidential races the Democrats have been more effective in getting their supporters to vote early.  For example, although Romney won the Election Day vote BO won the early voting & the electoral votes in Iowa – see table below.

 

click on table to enlarge

 

click on table from AP to enlarge

 

In 2012 seventy-four percent of Blacks voted before Election Day in the battleground state of North Carolina – this is a crucial state for Trump who is making outreaches to the Black community – but is it too late?

 

The following states began early voting in September, 2016 including Iowa & Minnesota – it is not unreasonable to project current margins in the polls, following the first debate last Monday, favoring Mrs. Clinton will stand up during @ least some of the early voting process:

 

9/23/16  Idaho, Minnesota, South Dakota, Vermont

9/24/16  Maine, Maryland, New Jersey

9/29/16  Illinois, Iowa, North Dakota, Wyoming

The beginning of early voting for the rest of the states who allow early voting is as follow:

10/10/16 California, Nebraska

10/11/16 Montana, New Mexico, Utah

10/12/16 Arizona, Indiana, Ohio

10/17/16 Georgia

10/19/16 Kansas, Tennessee

10/20/16 North Carolina

10/21/16 Washington

10/22/16 Nevada

10/24/16 Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Texas, Wisconsin

10/25/16 Hawaii, Louisiana

10/26/16 West Virginia

10/28/16 Massachusetts

10/29/16 Florida

10/30/16 District of Columbia

11/3/16 Oklahoma

The early voting advantage logically would go to the campaign with the best ground game (& the candidate in the lead when early voting starts as indicated above) – i.e., the Democrats who have never left offices established in 2008 in some of these states.  For instance Hillary has over 300 staffers in 57 offices in Ohio & 55 field offices & hundreds of organizers in PA while Trump is relying on the RNC who has 112 staffers in Ohio & 31 field offices.

***

The biggest point that favors Trump is his projected single digit loss in the millenials category.  BO won millenials with 66% in 2008 & 60% in 2012.  Hillary leads 38% to Trump's 33% with Gary Johnson & Jill Stein combining for 24%.  If Trump can keep the millennial loss in single digits & pick up a higher percentage of Whites than Romney won it should make a big difference in closing the gap & could be the key to winning.

***

Although there have been many polls over recent years showing the propensity of Americans, especially young Americans, to prefer socialism over capitalism the best indication of this preference is Socialist Bernie Sanders winning primaries/caucuses in 22 states with a total of 43.2% of the popular vote or 12,029,699 votes.  Sanders also drove Hillary Clinton to the socialist left during the primaries.  See graph below – green states were won by Sanders.

click on graphic to enlarge

Higher taxes & more regulation is all that can be seen if Hillary wins the White House with promises like expanding Social Security benefits, reintroducing the public option to the ObamaCare legislation, enacting a $15 per hour federal minimum wage law, providing free college to people making less than $125,000 per year, mandating overtime pay for salaried personnel, & enacting paid family leave legislation.  These policies continue the type of BO's policies that deliberately produced the current stagnate economy & do not make for a good investment climate – but there are strong indications, like the above Sanders' electoral results, that people want this.

But who could blame the young adults, for their anxiety & dissatisfaction, who can't find jobs & never will in their chosen college educated fields under the mixed economic & political system (way more than 50% socialism with traces of capitalism) we have today.  The problem is the youth of America has been brainwashed into thinking what they are experiencing is pure capitalism & that they are due all the socialist freebies being promised.  These people are so poorly informed that they do not know what they are losing

or why they are losing it.

 

The U.S. GDP inflation-adjusted (real) annual growth rate of 2% under BO's first seven years in office is the weakest expansion since World War II - with a slowing in the first half of 2016 to a 1% annual growth rate & projections of 1.8% for all of 2016.  In fact there is a cruel record of ten straight years where the real GDP has not reached 3% in any year.  See graph below – horizontal red line represents 3% real annual GDP growth.

click on graph to enlarge

At 2% growth it takes 35 years for the economy to double & @ 1% growth it takes 70 years to double so people favoring Democrat party government dependent policies are asking for little to no increases in their standard of living during their entire lifetimes.

Both men & women in their prime working years (aged 25 to 54) have not recovered to the jobs levels when the Great Recession began in December 2007. See graphs below.

  click on graphs to enlarge

 

Now as important as all of the above described misery is that Hillary will surely inflict on humanity if she wins the presidency, Trump offers something even greater than an alternative economic plan, energy plan, or superior foreign affairs policy.

 

In a Trump presidency we have the chance for a start of a change to the political correctness mindset that is ruining America unless it is reversed – & quickly.  Items like eliminating the fallacious destructive anchor baby claim to birthright citizenship, settling the incompatible relationship of Muslims who follow Sharia law taking a U.S. citizenship oath, banning people from Muslim countries from entering America until we know that immigrants & refugees from these countries are not terrorists, ending sanctuary cities, & restoring the enforcement of immigration laws – are all bedrock matters that must be settled before issues like tax reform, healthcare, climate change, the national debt, the budget deficit, or even adequate national defense can be addressed. 

 

Without Trump none of the politically incorrect issues listed above would have ever been brought up @ all by any other person running for office & for this every lover of America should thank Trump whether or not they hate him for any or every other reason – & should vote for him instead of Hillary Clinton.