The "never Trump" establishment Republican freight train reached full momentum (mass times velocity in both physics & politics) last Tuesday in Wisconsin as Ted Cruz (won 48% of the popular vote) - 36 delegates to Trump's (35%) - 6 delegates with no delegates for Kasich (14%).
Cruz has a big enough ego (meaning he is just foolish enough) to believe that all of a sudden people are falling in line & voting for his divisive message. Oh please. After instigating the 2013 government shut down Cruz only had the support of Mike Lee (UT) in the Senate before Lindsey Graham (SC) joined the Cruz team out of desperation because of Graham's hatred for Trump. Ninety seven to two among his Senate colleagues says a lot about Cruz's divisiveness.
With each losing or proportionately-delegate-dividing primary making it harder for Trump to reach the 1,237 delegate majority needed to secure the GOP nomination before the Republican National Convention in July – with no one else having a mathematical chance to get to 1,237 based on bound delegates – Cruz's & Kasich's roles are that of spoilers to stop Trump so that the activist delegates @ the convention are released to elect whomever they prefer including those currently not in the running – like Paul Ryan.
There are really two distinct & separate voting contests going on – one for primary voters which may amount to nothing & one for delegates who have the power to determine each party's nominee. The delegates we see on television every four years @ the conventions are not just there wearing funny hats & partying – we may find out they really mean business that will affect all of us.
It has been decades since there has been a contested convention in either party meaning that no candidate comes to the convention with enough delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot when the vast majority of delegates are required to vote for the state's or district's primary vote winner. But Trump is sensing (as does Cruz & even Kasich) that the delegates are the ones who really make the decision if no one receives 1,237 bound delegates that will secure the nomination on the first ballot. In essence it is Republican party faithful who will decide who the nominee is if the primary voters lose their chance after the first ballot. After all, this is what most of us have been watching our entire adult lives without actually knowing it – the two parties are really taking turns being in power while serving the elites @ our expense. It is truly one big government party with two wings – the Democrats & the Republicans. Both the Republican & Democrat conventions have the job of selecting a nominee that can win the election to keep the party elites in power & money – not to make the voters feel good or represented.
Selection of presidential nominees have been determined by different ways but party leaders have always been in control whether people knew it or not. Although there were some primaries before 1968 the majority of national convention delegates were selected by means of state party caucuses controlled by party leaders. In the North Dakota convention earlier this month no Republican presidential candidate had won a North Dakota primary but Cruz made it his business to appear @ the convention & as far as possible secured 18 of North Dakota's 25 delegates with Trump securing none for sure. Cruz is counting on his ground game that is superior to Trump's in this regard.
A vivid example of party leaders controlling the selection process involved the Democrat party of 1952 in which Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver won 12 of the 13 primaries & was the overwhelming choice prior to the national convention; however, the party bosses inserted Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson who had not even been in the running for the nomination. Of course Eisenhower defeated Stevenson in both 1952 & 1956.
Something like this is entirely possible in the Republican party this year with both front runners, Trump & Cruz, despised by the party bosses who just want to get rid of both of them.
So all the big guns came out in Wisconsin against Trump pretending to support Cruz.
Governor Scott Walker endorsed Cruz – Walker had been an early leader for the Republican nomination & also an early drop out from the presidential race after flip flopping twice on illegal immigration early in 2015 including @ a private NH dinner on March 13, 2015 in which he backed the concept of illegal immigrants staying in the country with a path to citizenship as opposed to his previous no amnesty position. Walker had backed the pathway to citizenship amnesty position for years prior to his reversal earlier in 2015. These inconsistencies caught up to Walker & he now clearly looks ensconced in the Republican establishment below the presidential level – but he had an influence against Trump in the Wisconsin primaries with Republicans.
Next Mitt Romney [& by extension (& to a lesser degree) Paul Ryan] bad mouthed Trump to anyone who would listen. This is the same Romney-Ryan ticket that lost Wisconsin by 7% in 2012 as well as Ryan's hometown of Janesville to BO-Biden 62% to 37%. Ryan also lost Janesville in his 2012 simultaneous congressional race 55% to 44%. So Ryan lost his home town twice in 2012 by double digits both times & is now looked @ as the savior of the Republican party by the RNC. Ryan has a favorable rating of 30% among Republicans, an unfavorable rating of 40%, with 29% undecided according to a Fox poll in late March. See graph below to see the trend lines the past several months.
Now Romney does not look like someone Republicans should be taking advice from – in 2012 Mitt lost every state he ever lived in except for Utah, one of the most reliably Republican states where he was helped by a heavy Mormon population. Mitt lost his adopted home state of Massachusetts 61% to 37%, Michigan (his birthplace) 54% to 45%, New Hampshire (where he owns a vacation home) 52% to 46%, & California (where he went to Stanford & now owns a home) 60% to 37%, but he won Utah 73% to 25%.
In addition, there were third parties like anti-Trump super PACS & the Club For Growth who spent $1 million in Wisconsin on anti-Trump ads as well as Wisconsin talk-radio that plastered the air waves with so much anti-Trump talk that people believed it.
Looking @ the turnout of the primaries shows why the party bosses understand they must maintain control of the nomination process. This election year, 2016, is regarded as a high voter turnout year - see graphic below – & it is @ 29% total (11.7% Democrat & 17.3% Republican) of the voting-eligible-population (VEP). The powerful elites cannot & will not let 11.7% or 17.3% of the voting-eligible population control their personal fates – these elites are too highly motivated & have too much @ stake to let this happen.
It is the poison of political correctness that has brainwashed the citizenry into continuing the slide of voting for one mediocre candidate or another election after election thereby keeping the two-party political system going – to our disadvantage & ultimate undoing. Accordingly, the partisan Republican activist delegates will not of their own volition nominate a man (Trump) whose positions rock their boat out of the water. They will take any & every opportunity (or ballot) they have to vote against anyone (Trump & Cruz) who is against most of what they believe in. They will nominate someone who represents their values (McCain & Romney the last two cycles & people like Jeb, Rubio, Kasich, & Ryan now) thereby continuing the decline of the American Republic.
It is this mindset of political correctness that Trump does away with &, regardless of his position on any issue, it is this mindset change for America that is the biggest contribution Trump brings about to make America great again.
Reference post: Laura Ingraham Was Right - Shut Down The Republican Party
Never thought until now how corrupt both parties are against the voters. Though it is evident the way they voted with BO so many times.
ReplyDeleteHi Doug - This was so good; so right; so depressing!
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