Cause For Concern

"They're more negative than they were five years ago." – Carl Van Horn, Rutgers University public policy professor, speaking about the results of a Rutgers poll conducted July 24 to August 3 (released on August 28) regarding Americans being more anxious about the economy now than they were right after the recession ended over five years ago. 

 

click on graph to enlarge

 

The above graphs are a strong confirmation of the results of the July 24 to August 3 Rutgers poll – they show over 3 million people still are unemployed for more than 27 weeks  & over seven & a half million people still are employed part time for economic reasons.  The cumulative change in weekly earnings for those employed in the private sector increased 1.5% since January 2007.  A pitiful performance but all per BO's design – & it is working to his benefit as an apathetic citizenry buys into it.

 

The following statistics (1 – 4) are from the Rutgers poll (by economics writer Josh Borak of the AP):

 

1. Seventy-one percent of Americans say they think the recession exerted a permanent drag on the economy.  By contrast, in November 2009, five months after the recession officially ended, the Rutgers researchers found that only 49 percent thought the downturn would have lasting damage.  And that was when the unemployment rate was 9.9 percent, compared with the current 6.2 percent.

2.  The slow pace of improvement during most of the recovery, now in its sixth year, has eroded confidence and slowed a return to the pay levels that many enjoyed before the economy suffered its worst collapse since the 1930s.  About 42 percent of those surveyed say they have less pay and savings than before the recession began in late 2007.  Just 7 percent say they're significantly better off.  The survey results dovetail with estimates that the median household income was $53,891 in June, according to Sentier Research. That's down from an inflation-adjusted $56,604 at the start of the recession.

3.  Each year of subpar growth has compounded the anxieties of many Americans.   In contrast to the robust snapbacks that coincided with most economic rebounds, this recovery proved tepid well after the recession had ended. Consumers struggled with an overhang of mortgage debt and the risk of layoffs for much of the recovery. A majority of those surveyed say they fear that job security has all but disappeared and that they'll have little choice but to work part time during retirement.

4.  Recent evidence of economic strength has done little to brighten most Americans' outlooks. The Standard and Poor's 500 stock index has surged more than 170 percent since bottoming in March 2009. Yet only 14 percent of the respondents said the gains have affected them a lot — a sign of either meager investments or the extent to which families unloaded their stock holdings near the bottom of the market.

The type of results of the Rutgers poll are quite familiar to readers of RTE – from the decline in median household income where people now make a fraction of what they used to make if they are fortunate enough to find employment, to people working two or more part time jobs in retirement to meet their expenses, to the wealth spend down required as a result of the combination of no jobs or low paying jobs & meager CD or investment income – you have seen post after post present details of our economic deterioration even before BO became a national figure.  BO may not have started the decline but he sure has been the opportunist taking advantage of it for his own purposes.

In addition to the Rutgers poll the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides the following statistics for Morris County, NJ: 1) since 2006, the number of salaried workers has decreased by 5 percent—from 297,300 to 283,400, 2) the number of salaried workers who supplement their income with additional jobs, or freelance work, rose 40 percent—from 59,000 to 82,500, & 3) the number of self employed people dropped 15 percent from 16,200 to 13,800 – & most of these are more informal, unincorporated people who tend to work solo in home-based settings after losing a job rather than being self starting entrepreneurs with big dreams of innovation.

The Social Security Administration reports that in 2014 34% of the workforce has no savings set aside specifically for retirement, 51% has no private pension coverage, & 52% of couples & 74% of unmarried individuals who receive benefits get @ least half of their income from Social Security.

As long as the economy remains as weak as depicted above & people continue to show a growing trend toward favoring government dependence BO is getting his way – whether he is sitting in the Oval Office or playing golf – much to the consternation of conservatives.

And the trends of deterioration are relentless in BO's favor – last Thursday PA Governor Tom Corbett agreed to extend the state's Medicaid program to half a million low-income residents under the optional ObamaCare Medicaid feature.  Corbett is the ninth GOP governor to succumb to the ObamaCare Medicaid expansion that the Supreme Court allowed states to op out of in their June 2012 controversial unconstitutional decision.  Not coincidentally Corbett trails his Democrat opponent by 25 points in the polls & thinks this detestable move will help his reelection prospects.  Hope there is a good third party gubernatorial candidate in PA.

The WSJ reports that "the major budget driver now is Medicaid, which will surge by 15% on ObamaCare's expansion of that program.  The figure would be still higher had not 23 states opted out to protect the integrity of their own budgets."  All of this no thanks to Corbett & PA.

The above Republican Medicaid capitulation mirrors the GOP governors' cessation of resistance regarding running their own state healthcare insurance exchanges because of the foregone federal government subsidies their citizens would otherwise be entitled to.  Governors whose states opted out of setting up their own state exchanges have had tremendous pressure applied because of the lost federal money foreseen.  Republican governors in Idaho & Nevada, standing on quicksand, have each taken the position that their federally set up exchanges are state-based no matter who runs them.  Doesn't even sound like a good try.

It is no wonder that Jenny Beth Martin of Tea Party Patriots writes "ObamaCare is rapidly replacing the world's best healthcare system with a government run & rationed socialized boondoggle that will destroy Medicare, limit healthcare access, lower healthcare quality, & increase healthcare costs."  ObamaCare keeps steaming along with more damage scheduled right after the November 4 elections.

So as lovers of freedom hang on for dear life & try to contemplate an opposition that could possibly eliminate the Democrat majority in the Senate (while desperately hoping that the Democrats don't retake the House) the results so far are not good.  BO is no less popular now than he was in the fall of 2013 & Democrats de Blasio (NYC Mayor), Booker (NJ Senate), & McAuliffe (VA Governor) all won their respective races.  The primary turnouts in 2014 are @ record lows – for instance if Dave Larsen could have just held the vote total he had in 2012 & added just 50 votes he would have won the NJ – 7th district Republican primary – instead he received over 2,000 votes less than he did in 2012 & lost to a statist Republican candidate who received over 9,000 fewer votes than in 2012.

In the GOP's favor in this midterm election is the fact that second term presidents' parties historically lose congressional seats in midterm elections.  But if the GOP was any good we would not have this second term president to begin with.

Republican primary turnout is down 15% in 2014, positive feelings about Republicans has fallen from 34% in early 2011 to 19% today, there is a voter backlash against the way the GOP has used its House majority, & Democrats have a double digit lead among women.

BO's expected amnesty plan to the millions of illegal immigrants in America has been delayed insultingly until after the November midterms.  The thousands of unaccompanied children arriving on our southern border from several Central American countries has been met with disapproval as people recognized the children were being used as pawns & American citizens as fools – hence the delay until BO squeezes the electoral process dry.

Recent political science scholars are returning to the idea that a country's structural foundations are more important than even economic policies in determining a country's long term economic growth & prosperity.  America's foundations were built on the bedrock of limited government, personal responsibility, & free enterprise.  The danger to our liberty & individual rights is BO's relentless onslaught on America's structural foundations, as only partially detailed above.  Those of us who cherish these freedoms see clearly the great cause for concern that there will never again be times like most of us grew up in.