Millennials & Huckabee @ CPAC

"There are a lot of D.C. consultants who say there's a choice for Republicans to make: We can either choose to keep our head down, to not rock the boat, to not stand for anything, or we can stand for principle. They say if you stand for principle you lose elections. The way to do it — the smart way, the Washington way — is don't stand against ObamaCare, don't stand against the debt ceiling, don't stand against nothing.  I want to tell you something — that is a false dichotomy."  - Texas Senator Ted Cruz speaking @ the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in MD last week

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I love it when the questions & comments proceed the post – in this case "Hi Doug - Did you watch the CPAC speeches?  Who impressed you?  They all hammered ObamaCare but all failed to offer an alternative.  That will hurt them down the road" was a message I received from a long time reader of RTE.

 

Let's start with a breakdown of the CPAC attendees:  there were 2,459 attendees in 2014 @ the conference compared to 3,742 as recently as 2011 – not a good sign for people who identify as conservatives, 42% were students with 46% aged 18 to 25, 78% were interested in reducing the deficit through spending cuts only, 52% believe it is time for our European, Asian, & other allies to provide for their own defense, 78% opposed the NSA's data collection, & 41% believe that marijuana should be legalized for recreational & medical use & taxed.

 

With this profile of attendees it is no wonder that KY Senator Rand Paul won the CPAC straw poll by an even larger margin than he did in 2013. 

 

Although the total number of attendees is down @ the latest CPAC meeting the number of young people represented @ the conference is demographically top heavy compared to the entire U.S. population. About half of Millennials— people between the ages of 18 and 32 with no chronological end point yet set for this age group (the key characteristic is that a millennial was first eligible to vote in 2000 or later) — do not identify with political parties & this is very good on the surface.  Fifty percent of Millennials claim to be Independents but actually vote overwhelmingly Democrat – just look @ the above graph.  Millennials today are still the only generation in which liberals are not significantly outnumbered by conservatives – another bad sign.  My own observation is that people who claim to be Independents, regardless of their age, really lean one way or the other & most are really Democrats – what would you expect from young people just leaving college who claim to be Independents?

 

As the above pre-post comment noted "they all hammered ObamaCare but all failed to offer an alternative."  The problems with ObamaCare will be the central focus of Republicans going toward the 2014 midterms & most of them feel presenting an alternative could be dangerous politically for them – i.e., the hell with you & the country.  Judge for yourself how safe or foolproof this Republican strategy is regarding winning the controlling majority of November elections when you consider that the Democrats will continue to counter with the income inequality & class warfare themes that have proven very effective for quite some time.  For instance the Democrat theme of raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour is supported by 81% of Democrats & 58% of all voters while only 47% of all voters support repealing ObamaCare.  Source WSJ/NBC News Poll March 5 to 9.

 

Our first guidepost is the results of Florida's special election on Tuesday where Republican David Jolly defeated Democrat Alex Sink by less than 3,500 votes – a very underwhelming victory in a district where a late Republican incumbent (who won by over 50,000 votes & 57.6% of the total in 2012) held the seat for 43 years before his death in October.  Jolly was the former general council for the deceased long time representative.  Jolly blasted Sink for her support of ObamaCare all the way to a less than two point victory.  Hardly a victory that would make me confident of Republican prospects in other mid-term contests.

 

It is safe to conclude that ObamaCare hurt the Democrat somewhat in that it motivated Republicans to the polls for this 40% turnout special election.  The aforementioned poll showed that respondents were just as likely to back a Democrat who wanted to keep ObamaCare & fix it as they are to back a Republican who wants to repeal it – the full effect of ObamaCare has not been felt & BO's politically motivated delays make people unaware of what's coming their way.  The safest bet is that BO has already started to plan how to counter the result of the special election.  The following graphs make the point to me that Republicans have very little room for error between now & November. 

 

click on graphs to enlarge

 

Tea Partiers should not fall for the Democrat line "ObamaCare is our plan so what is yours" as if they need to produce a plan that is centered on government involvement – you automatically lose if you fall for this trap, it is just a matter of how badly.  The Tea Party plan in all concerns is one of limited government, self responsibility, & free enterprise whether it is healthcare insurance or any other issue.  Click on The Solution To America's Healthcare Problems if you want a plan.

 

But back to CPAC – there were many excellent presentations this year including Sarah Palin's, Jim DeMint's, & Tim Scott's.  TX Governor Rick Perry got high marks.  I met Governor Perry in 2012 & he is authentic in listening & learning.  I rated him head & shoulders over Romney & Santorum who I also met in 2012.

 

In 2004 I told the very first Republican reader of RTE that he better enjoy Bush winning the presidency because Republicans would never win another national election again "if Democrats ever get organized" & that was before any of us knew what a community organizer did.  We are so badly outnumbered that one former solid red state or district after another turns blue just like we saw in Florida's special election district described above – a former solid Republican district (43 years worth) has been turned competitive by statist newcomers moving in.  Do you know of one blue state that has turned red by conservatives moving in?  Texas is the statists' ultimate prize & if they win that it spells curtains for the Republic as a capitalistic system.

 

With this backdrop I believe that Mike Huckabee was the only speaker @ CPAC last week that has a chance to win the presidency against MO, Hillary, or whomever the Dems put up.  I worked for Governor Huckabee in 2008 when he was one of the last four presidential candidates standing.  Unlike Dole, McCain, Bush, or Romney he can talk & this by itself will throw the Democrats off.

 

Click here to hear Governor Huckabee's CPAC speech where he talked about the free exercise of religion exactly as it was described in the last RTE post, honoring veterans in a very special prioritized way, family, hammering Hillary on Benghazi, standing up for Israel, & building a strong military.  He also called for abolishing the IRS by enacting the FairTax, continuing high risk healthcare pools to service catastrophic medical emergencies like described in the above referenced healthcare plan, & explaining correctly that the Second Amendment was written into the Bill Of Rights so that the citizenry would have a constitutional means of protection against an oppressive government.

 

Now as interesting as these issues are to most readers of this blog they still are only the A to Y reasons why a Republican can't win a national election when the principles of Death Of Democracy are the dominant issue & real opponent – i.e., government dependent people are not interested in any of this because their sole issue is handouts & candidates who will promise them more handouts.  In the words of H.L. Mencken it boils down to "those who work for a living & those who vote for a living."  A sixty year old who dropped out of the labor force after being unemployed for three years is not thinking about Benghazi Libya or the benefits of a new tax system.  This is part of the dependent state Democrats have put Americans in – their thoughts are back to basic instincts like food instead of increasing the standard of living or improving the economy.

 

Complete the alphabet with Z is for the zero chance any national Republican has unless he can reach out to Romney's 47% of the people who will vote for MO, Hillary, or other Dem no matter what – this 47% are dependent on government, believe they are victims entitled to government handouts, & pay no income tax. 

 

Reaching a few percent of these people @ a time is the start to a new mindset & return to excellence for America.  I believe that Huckabee has the demeanor & style to best reach these people – Mitt didn't try even after correctly identifying them.  Huckabee also endorses the FairTax which gives the entire country a fresh start.  All of the others balk to one degree or another in supporting the FairTax.

 

When Democrats start with 47% of the population on their side & the assured electoral votes of California & the rest of the northwest, New York & the rest of the northeast, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, & Delaware the Republican opposition better come close to running the rest of the table to have any chance @ all.  Couple this electoral slant with the fact that 54% of the electorate was women in 2012 – a duplication of this statistic in 2016 makes matters all the more impossible.  Twice in the last six presidential elections that ended in 2008 the voting age population exceeded the actual number of voters by over 100-million people (in 2008 it was 75-million people) – source author Andy Andrews.  The 60% of the voting age population who votes in presidential elections tilts Democrat to begin with but BO has an additional advantage in that he has a larger target in trying to pick off more of the aforementioned 75-million non voters – this group would certainly overwhelmingly favor Democrats if they could be organized which of course is BO's specialty. 

 

Many of the older Millennials form a special portion of Mitt's 47% in that they have wasted the first quarter of their wealth creating years & have neither nothing to show for it or any promise of a better prospect.  At least people in their 50s & 60s who have been bludgeoned by BO have a lifetime of wealth to spend down even @ a lower standard of living than they were used to. 

 

Megyn Kelly ran a special on FNC in November which featured the problems of many Millennials & their parents – in summary, student loans to repay & no quality jobs.  There were people on Megyn's panel who were 29 & 31 years old who had not used their education @ all in earning a living & they were sticking with Democrats in general & BO in particular.  These people are the ones a Republican presidential candidate has to reach for starters.

 

But there is a lot to undo & every day the current mindset gets more entrenched.

 

Now that you know all of this what do you do with it?