Before William McGurn puts the finishing touches on his obituary for the American welfare state ("After the Welfare State," Main Street, April 5), he may want to reconsider the hurdles that lie ahead. Recall that 15 years ago President Bill Clinton announced that the era of big government was over. Federal spending is projected to exceed $3.8 trillion this year, 140% higher than the $1.6 trillion spent when big government's death knell was sounded by Mr. Clinton.
Curtailing big government today is an infinitely more challenging task than it was in 1996, despite the obvious failings of the welfare state model. First, the nation is much closer now to a tipping point where those who pay no income taxes will outnumber those who foot the bill. As widely reported, 10% of tax filers pay 70% of federal income taxes, but Democrats scream that those filers are not paying enough.
Second, polls suggest that class-warfare rhetoric has been effective in reinforcing a culture of dependency and envy. A recent WSJ/NBC poll indicated that nearly 70% of respondents prefer to see the budget deficit closed by raising taxes on families earning more than $250,000 (rather than cutting entitlement spending). Third, another generation of Americans has been subjected to a decidedly left-wing bias in our educational system. In most U.S. colleges, it is practically impossible for conservatives to get hired, much less tenured.
President Obama's plan to transform America certainly wasn't to craft a post-welfare state return to limited government and individualism. Mr. Obama may have more than a billion dollars of campaign cash to spend on his re-election next year. Beneficiaries of the welfare state, along with idealistic young people steeped in collectivistic mythology, are likely to be highly motivated on President Obama's behalf. The welfare state could very well limp through a second term for Mr. Obama, and the nature of a post-collapse replacement at that point is impossible to predict.
Doug: William McGum points out that projected spending will exceed $3.8 trillion...
ReplyDelete"Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for." Will Rogers