Truce - The Enemy Of My Enemy Is My Friend

"They are using our members, & they are using the American people for their own goals.  This is ridiculous.  If you are for more deficit reduction, you are for this agreement."  - House Speaker John Boehner speaking to reporters after a closed door GOP meeting that reviewed the Ryan-Murray proposed two-year budget deal

 

"We have adults here in Washington that can deal with big problems." – House Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions emphasizing that the aforementioned budget deal demonstrated that the Republicans were capable of not shutting down the government on January 15

 

"It's a huge mistake to trade sequester cuts now for the promise of cuts later."  KY Senator Rand Paul expressing my thoughts exactly

 

  click on graph & table to enlarge

 

I love it when the comments precede the post.  In this Shakespearian case – "Hi Doug - Hope all is going well!  Just a quick note to let you know I am waiting with bated breath for your posting re Paul Ryan & the budget deal with Murray."  Seems this long time subscriber knew this one was coming.

 

Paul Ryan's budget deal with Patty Murray follows every other budget Ryan has made the past five years in that they all are frauds because every one of them has increased the deficit & the national debt despite Ryan's claims to the contrary.  This one could not leave the sequester alone which would have automatically reduced domestic & defense spending to $967-billion from $986-billion in fiscal year 2013.  As a result of the Ryan-Murray deal such spending will increase to $1,012-billion in 2014 & $1,014-billion in 2015 for a total spending increase of $62-billion for the two years above the budget caps agreed to in August 2011 – see table above.  To dispel any illusions re how draconian the sequester was please refer to the above table that shows spending going up even with the sequester in place – even the $986-billion was exceeded the first year by $2-billion.  Ryan is no budget hawk @ all & never has been.

 

The Ryan-Murray budget deal was mainly criticized by the Heritage Foundation, AFP, Freedom Works, & the Club For Growth because Ryan claimed it was indeed deficit reduction & did not raise taxes.  Referring to the deal's $85-billion in fee hikes to airline passengers & cuts in pensions of both federal workers & military personnel Senator Jeff Sessions (AL) said ". . . it's a fee increase to fuel a spending increase, rather than reducing deficits."  The $62-billion increased spending occurs the next two years & as always the bogus cuts occur 8 to 10 years from now meaning never.

 

Nevertheless the deal passed the House by a vote of 332- 92 (see below for the actual vote) @ 6:25 PM the night before the House went into recess for the Christmas holiday.  It now goes to the Senate for another last minute vote on Tuesday.  No wonder the above graph shows such a low rating for Congress.   

 

This is just another proof positive that the current Congress just does not have it within them to act financially responsible.  All of the above is the small potatoes part of the budget process, which never touched entitlements.

 

During all of this Boehner finally got some fire in his belly & it is all directed toward the Tea Party.  Now Boehner is the last person in the world to lecture anyone on deficit reduction.  I'm sure everyone even with the shortest of memories will recall the first major vote of Boehner's speakership in 2011.  Republicans had campaigned in 2010 to reduce spending by $100-billion.  After being sworn in, that was quickly & bogusly clarified to mean $100-billion on a prorated fiscal year basis that ultimately turned out to be $300-million in real spending cuts after all the smoke cleared.

 

As far as the complaints that Heritage & the others made before the deal was finalized – Ryan-Murray had telegraphed the main points of the deal long before it was finalized.  I received messages from AFP several days before the deal was finalized that very accurately described the final deal.  Also isn't it better to make your voice known before a deal is finalized so changes can be made?

 

The main thing Republicans received from the Ryan-Murray deal was avoiding another government shutdown & keeping ObamaCare's problems front & center in people's minds – these are two political basics right now but they are not enough to win the day & should be considered defensive. 

 

The Democrats received something too.  They wanted to move beyond the budget deal (i.e., not waste any more of BO's remaining time in office dealing with government shutdowns) & get on with comprehensive immigration reform, the farm bill (that includes expanding food stamps), & raising the minimum wage – these are all winning issues for Democrats & @ this point in our country's history could be fatal to the Republican Party & accordingly should be considered offensive (in more ways than one). 

 

Putting this all aside the House establishment Republicans (the 169 Ayes below – Team A) & the Tea Party Republicans (the 62 Noes below – Team N) should follow the principle the enemy of my enemy is my friend. 

 

This requires Teams A & N working out a truce that starts by recognizing that even combined they cannot defeat BO's policies for the next three long years.  The truce would allow Ryan to continue his budget work, un-criticized by the Tea Party who would accept that the point of Ryan's work is to keep the government open & not cause problems that the Republicans would undoubtedly be blamed for –this approach will provide the best chance to unseat Democrats in the 2014 midterm elections.  The truce would also forbid Ryan from declaring such work reduces the deficit unless it really does – Ryan's claims of financial responsibility infuriate the Tea Party & people like me.  Of course Boehner should stop criticizing the Tea Party also.  The two Teams should try to be helpful & not unduly controversial while letting ObamaCare collapse & in the interim voting for each issue as they see fit.  Ryan's budget work will attract enough Democrat support to keep business as usual rolling along in DC with issues like raising the debt ceiling coming up in February.  Most important each Team should make their own plan for all of these topics & consistently present them so every American is familiar with their alternatives.  Once the 2014 election campaign starts (& 2016 presidential campaign for that matter) both Teams can take the gloves off & campaign on their own principles & plans with the best Team winning the most congressional seats & fielding the Republican presidential nominee.  The public will have a clear choice based on principles instead of infighting sound bites & once again if the Republicans select a Romney-like candidate I'm sure many Tea Partiers will either stay home or vote for a third party candidate – but with the truce we @ least have the best turn @ bat possible.

 

As far as a deficit reduction plan I suggest that Four Points Highlight The Needed Change In Mindset first presented on RTE in January 2012 is a good starting point.  One of the four points even includes Ryan's Medicare premium support idea that was later so watered down by Mitt that it was barely recognizable.  We have the possibility that some from Team A will come over to Team N.

 

The chance of such a truce being drawn is remote because both sides hate each other so much.  Although I support Jim DeMint's Thirty concept I don't believe Republicans have to destroy each other along the way – the actual elections, starting with the primaries, provide plenty of opportunity for that.  Team A has to admit they are a group of centrist moderates & Team N has to accept that, without further criticism until a Republican candidate for president is found who has a chance to win – not like Dole, McCain, or Romney.  To the extent that something like this proposed truce does not happen the Democrats chances of winning everything increases proportionately.

 

We will learn which Team the Senate members are on after Tuesday's votes on the House budget bill – one vote for cloture that needs 60 votes & the other vote on the actual bill that needs only a majority.  It will be very interesting if the Senate does not pass this bill – cloture could be the sticking point.

 

Although many establishment Republican pundits like Karl Rove think Republicans are not only in & of themselves a winning alternative to the hapless Democrats in the 2014 mid-term elections they think it is odds on that a Republican will win the presidency in 2016.

 

At this last stage of Death of Democracy only a giant mindset change of the American people away from government dependence would give anyone other than a Democrat a chance @ victory in 2016.  First – the Democrats will run a woman (Michelle Obama or Hillary) & if the statistic of 54% of the 2012 electorate being women is repeated they will have a tremendous immediate advantage.  Second – BO won 70% of the needed 270 electoral votes in Democrat gimmee states like CA, NY, & IL; he won 32% of the needed electoral votes in another group of reliable Democrat states by over 5% each, meaning that a repeat performance by Michelle or Hillary would put them over the top without the need of contesting any of the so-called battleground states like OH, FL, NC, or VA.

 

With regard to the 2014 mid-term elections the December 11 McClatchy-Marist poll found that not only are most Americans unhappy with the job Congress is doing they are particularly dissatisfied with Republican members of Congress by a net eleven points.  See the two graphs below – one shows congressional Republicans with a 22% approval rating & the other shows congressional Democrats with a 33% approval rating.

 

To have any chance Teams A & N must bide their time without destroying each other & come up with credible plans consistently presented as well as an inspirational presidential candidate in 2016.  But if we don't have a giant change in mindset of the American people we have nothing anyway. 

 

   click on graphs to enlarge

 

 

FINAL VOTE RESULTS FOR ROLL CALL 640 (Republicans in roman; Democrats in italic; Independents underlined)
      H J RES 59      RECORDED VOTE      12-Dec-2013      6:25 PM
      QUESTION:  On Motion to Recede and Concur in the Senate Amendment with Amendment
      BILL TITLE: Making continuing appropriations for fiscal year 2014, and for other purposes

	Ayes	Noes	PRES	NV
Republican	169	62		1
Democratic	163	32		6
Independent
TOTALS	332	94		7

---- AYES    332 ---

Aderholt Amodei Andrews Bachus Barber Barletta Barr Barrow (GA) Beatty Becerra Benishek Bera (CA) Bilirakis Bishop (NY) Bishop (UT) Black Blackburn Blumenauer Boehner Bonamici Boustany Brady (PA) Brady (TX) Braley (IA) Brooks (IN) Brownley (CA) Buchanan Bucshon Bustos Butterfield Calvert Camp Campbell Cantor Capito Capps Capuano Cárdenas Carney Carson (IN) Carter Cartwright Cassidy Castor (FL) Chaffetz Clark (MA) Clay Cleaver Clyburn Coble Cohen Cole Collins (GA) Collins (NY) Conaway Connolly Cook Cooper Costa Courtney Cramer Crenshaw Crowley Cuellar Culberson Cummings Davis (CA) Davis, Rodney DeGette Delaney DelBene Denham Dent Deutch Diaz-Balart Dingell Doggett Doyle Duckworth Duffy Edwards Ellmers Engel Enyart Eshoo Esty Farenthold Farr Fattah Fincher Fitzpatrick Fleischmann Fleming Flores Forbes Fortenberry Foster Foxx Frelinghuysen Gabbard Gallego Garamendi Garcia Gerlach Gibbs Gibson Goodlatte Granger Graves (GA) Graves (MO) Grayson

Green, Al Green, Gene Griffin (AR) Griffith (VA) Grimm Guthrie Gutiérrez Hahn Hanna Harper Hartzler Hastings (FL) Hastings (WA) Heck (WA) Hensarling Herrera Beutler Higgins Himes Hinojosa Honda Horsford Hudson Huffman Huizenga (MI) Hultgren Hunter Hurt Israel Issa Jackson Lee Jeffries Jenkins Johnson (GA) Johnson (OH) Johnson, E. B. Joyce Kaptur Keating Kelly (IL) Kelly (PA) Kennedy Kildee Kilmer Kind King (NY) Kinzinger (IL) Kirkpatrick Kline Kuster LaMalfa Lamborn Lance Langevin Lankford Larsen (WA) Larson (CT) Latham Latta Lewis Lipinski LoBiondo Loebsack Lofgren Lowenthal Lowey Lucas Luetkemeyer Lujan Grisham (NM) Luján, Ben Ray (NM) Lynch Maffei Maloney, Carolyn Maloney, Sean Marino Matheson Matsui McAllister McCarthy (CA) McCaul McCollum McDermott McGovern McHenry McKeon McMorris Rodgers McNerney Meehan Meeks Meng Messer Mica Michaud Miller (FL) Miller (MI) Miller, Gary Miller, George Moore Moran Murphy (FL) Murphy (PA) Nadler Napolitano Neal Noem Nolan Nunes Nunnelee O'Rourke Owens Palazzo Pascrell

Pastor (AZ) Paulsen Payne Pelosi Perlmutter Perry Peters (CA) Peters (MI) Peterson Petri Pittenger Pitts Polis Price (GA) Price (NC) Quigley Rahall Rangel Reed Reichert Renacci Ribble Rice (SC) Rigell Roby Roe (TN) Rogers (AL) Rogers (KY) Rogers (MI) Rokita Rooney Ros-Lehtinen Roskam Ross Rothfus Roybal-Allard Royce Ruiz Runyan Ruppersberger Ryan (OH) Ryan (WI) Sarbanes Schiff Schneider Schock Schwartz Scott (VA) Scott, Austin Scott, David Sensenbrenner Serrano Sessions Sewell (AL) Shea-Porter Sherman Shimkus Shuster Simpson Sinema Sires Smith (NJ) Smith (TX) Smith (WA) Southerland Speier Stewart Stivers Stutzman Swalwell (CA) Takano Terry Thompson (CA) Thompson (PA) Thornberry Tiberi Tierney Tipton Titus Tonko Tsongas Turner Upton Valadao Van Hollen Vargas Veasey Vela Wagner Walberg Walden Walorski Walz Wasserman Schultz Waxman Welch Westmoreland Whitfield Williams Wilson (FL) Wilson (SC) Wittman Wolf Womack Woodall Yarmuth Yoder Yoho Young (AK) Young (IN)

---- NOES    94 ---

Amash Bachmann Barton Bass Bentivolio Bridenstine Brooks (AL) Broun (GA) Burgess Chabot Chu Cicilline Clarke (NY) Coffman Conyers Cotton Crawford Daines DeFazio DeLauro DeSantis DesJarlais Duncan (SC) Duncan (TN) Ellison Frankel (FL) Franks (AZ) Fudge Gardner Garrett Gingrey (GA) Gohmert

Gosar Gowdy Grijalva Hall Hanabusa Harris Heck (NV) Holding Holt Hoyer Huelskamp Johnson, Sam Jones Jordan King (IA) Kingston Labrador Lee (CA) Levin Long Lummis Marchant Massie McClintock McIntyre McKinley Meadows Mullin Mulvaney Negrete McLeod Neugebauer Nugent

Olson Pallone Pearce Pingree (ME) Pocan Poe (TX) Pompeo Posey Richmond Rohrabacher Salmon Sánchez, Linda T. Sanchez, Loretta Sanford Scalise Schakowsky Schrader Schweikert Slaughter Smith (MO) Smith (NE) Stockman Thompson (MS) Velázquez Visclosky Waters Watt Weber (TX) Webster (FL) Wenstrup

---- NOT VOTING    7 ---

Bishop (GA) Brown (FL) Castro (TX)

Davis, Danny McCarthy (NY) Radel

Rush